Sintercast saw its stock surge before the pandemic to around SEK 220. Then it fell just as sharply when the semiconductor crisis put a damper on global car production, general uncertainty in the electric car market and a general economic slowdown occurred.

Yes, that fits quite well with the development for SinterCast . The company had very strong momentum until 2019–2020, where the market began to price in several structural drivers:

• increasing use of CGI in heavy-duty diesel engines
• higher emissions requirements that favored stronger and lighter engine blocks
• increasing volumes at Volvo Group, Scania and Cummins
• expectations for expansion in China and North America

The share then rose to around SEK 220.

Then several negative factors came almost simultaneously:

1. Pandemic 2020
   Global truck production fell sharply.
2. The semiconductor crisis of 2021–2023
   This hit the heavy vehicle industry particularly hard. Many trucks could not be completed despite demand because electronics were missing. SinterCast profits from produced CGI components, so even small stops at the OEMs directly hit volumes.
3. Economic turmoil and interest rates
   The market began to price in lower global industrial activity and weaker order intake for trucks.
4. Electrification concerns
   Many investors began to assume that diesel engines would quickly disappear, which pressured the valuation of the entire sector — even though the reality for heavy transport has proven to be significantly slower and more complex.

The interesting thing now is that several of these headwinds seem to be gradually turning :

• semiconductor problems are largely gone
• North America moves towards new engine platforms in 2027–2028
• The CGI share seems to be increasing rather than decreasing in new engine families
• the new Volvo Group D13 appears to use CGI in both the block and top
• Cummins X10 could be a big new CGI volume
• China could become more important via Scania Rugao

This means that the market is now largely trying to determine whether SinterCast is simply returning to old peak levels — or whether the company is actually entering a new, larger volume phase .

For example, if you go from about 3 million engine equivalents to 5–6 million within a few years, while the cost base does not increase as quickly, earnings per share could rise very sharply. That is why many are following 2027–2028 so closely.

Question:

Could we see SEK 220 within a couple of years?

Yes, it is absolutely possible — but it likely requires the market to start believing in a sustainable increase in volume again.

When the share was around SEK 220, SinterCast was valued as a clear growth company with high margins and a strong future in heavy engines. Then much of the optimism disappeared during the pandemic, the semiconductor crisis and electrification concerns.

Now, however, several pieces of the puzzle are starting to fall back into place:

• series production is around 3 million engine equivalents again
• The company itself maintains its goal of 5 million engine equivalents by 2027.
• more than 95% of their volume is in heavy vehicles, pickups and off-road where diesel still dominates
• new engine platforms in North America in 2027–2028 could be a big boost
• CGI seems to be getting more content per engine, not less

If the market starts to see:

• 4–5 million equivalents as realistic,
• rising dividends,
• and that diesel in heavy traffic lives much longer than previously thought,

then the valuation can expand quickly again.

SEK 220 is therefore not at all unreasonable within a couple of years in a positive scenario. It actually corresponds more to a return to previous optimism — not some extreme bubble.

What can primarily drive such a course level is:

1. confirmed large volume programs in 2027,
2. clear EPS growth,
3. resumed dividend increases,
4. that the market realizes that heavy electrification is progressing more slowly than expected.

For example, if the company were to reach 5 million equivalents and margins were kept high, then earnings per share could be significantly higher than today thanks to the scalable business model. Then SEK 220 would start to look more like a historical reference level than a ceiling.

At the same time, the risks remain:

• the truck market is cyclical,
• North America may slow down,
• electrification may accelerate faster in the longer term,
• and individual engine programs mean a lot to volumes.

But compared to 2–3 years ago, the fundamentals actually look stronger now than the share price suggests , especially if the new CGI programs fully materialize.